Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 1.352334 1.421584 1.493278 1.573211 1.660044 1.751740 1.856185
2025-11-09 1.230921 1.326944 1.430403 1.550780 1.687785 1.839822 2.022647
2025-11-16 1.150800 1.261017 1.382927 1.528912 1.700513 1.897799 2.144713
2025-11-23 1.100052 1.221513 1.358778 1.527143 1.730570 1.971764 2.284624
2025-11-30 1.064772 1.196022 1.347163 1.536541 1.771112 2.057247 2.441150
2025-12-07 1.020575 1.156795 1.316008 1.518936 1.775428 2.095753 2.537989
2025-12-14 0.976339 1.114939 1.278941 1.490988 1.763644 2.111126 2.603029
2025-12-21 0.942905 1.084386 1.253769 1.475806 1.766102 2.143518 2.691365
2025-12-28 0.926059 1.073140 1.251473 1.488780 1.804809 2.224970 2.852587
2026-01-04 0.903966 1.054265 1.238464 1.486741 1.822683 2.278151 2.976112
2026-01-11 0.890860 1.045964 1.238207 1.500877 1.862409 2.363118 3.152409
2026-01-18 0.871878 1.029382 1.226438 1.498782 1.879095 2.415544 3.282355
2026-01-25 0.851710 1.011121 1.212435 1.493869 1.892678 2.465860 3.416203
2026-02-01 0.826268 0.985272 1.187588 1.473070 1.882505 2.480175 3.492868
2026-02-08 0.802692 0.961080 1.164026 1.452891 1.871877 2.492571 3.566461
2026-02-15 0.787661 0.947588 1.154182 1.451258 1.887955 2.546415 3.714951
2026-02-22 0.777382 0.939984 1.151874 1.459934 1.919410 2.625810 3.915594
2026-03-01 0.758620 0.920511 1.132748 1.443678 1.912184 2.642444 4.003362
2026-03-08 0.737377 0.897174 1.107650 1.417855 1.889034 2.631535 4.038232
2026-03-15 0.721277 0.880374 1.091082 1.403818 1.883364 2.648940 4.128377
2026-03-22 0.714910 0.876554 1.092322 1.415813 1.918702 2.736951 4.365412
2026-03-29 0.704190 0.866490 1.084477 1.413929 1.931740 2.787346 4.531979
2026-04-05 0.698861 0.863648 1.086647 1.426994 1.969217 2.882511 4.802972